GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has increased its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 3.9 percent, representing a significant rise from the 1.9 percent estimate issued in March. The organization attributed this positive revision to stronger trade figures in the first half of the year, supply chain realignments, and increased investments in artificial intelligence. Despite notable disruptions affecting energy, transport, and fertilizer markets, merchandise trade volume grew 3.5 percent during the initial six months of 2026. Looking ahead, the WTO now predicts merchandise trade will expand by 4.1 percent in 2027.
A key driver of merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026 was demand linked to artificial intelligence. Goods enabling AI, such as semiconductors and servers, contributed to 47 percent of the overall global merchandise trade increase. Trade in these items surged 67 percent compared to the previous year. The WTO also indicated that worldwide expenditures on AI infrastructure are expected to grow by at least 30 percent in 2026. Robust demand for computing hardware supported trade flows, even as other sectors faced disruptions caused by conflicts and logistical constraints.
Global supply chains adapted to stress across major commodity and shipping markets. During the first half of 2026, crude oil exports from the Middle East declined by approximately 24 percent. Simultaneously, liquefied natural gas exports from the region dropped by 47 percent. However, increased shipments from alternative suppliers mitigated the overall decline to around 6 percent for crude oil, with global LNG exports decreasing only 1 percent. Additionally, container throughput worldwide rose by 3.9 percent through July, reflecting shifts to alternative ports and routes to sustain trade.
AI-driven goods bolster global merchandise trade
The optimistic outlook for goods contrasts with more subdued expectations for services trade. The WTO has lowered its 2026 forecast for services trade volume growth from 4.8 percent in March to 3.3 percent. Disruptions in the Middle East have exerted additional pressure on transport and international travel. In the second quarter, international tourist arrivals decreased by 0.8 percent, resulting in only a 0.4 percent increase over the first half of the year. Growth in travel-related spending also slowed sharply between the first and second quarters.
Other service sectors, however, experienced stronger growth despite challenges in travel and transportation. Exports of computer services rose 18 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, with an estimated growth of 12 percent in the second quarter. Financial services exports increased by 14 percent during the same period. The WTO anticipates a 6.4 percent growth in commercial services trade volume in 2027, and it also projects global GDP growth of 2.6 percent for 2026 and 2.9 percent for the following year.
Regional disparities in trade growth persist
Outlook for merchandise trade varies significantly across regions. The WTO forecasts that Asia will lead in export growth at 9.9 percent in 2026. North America is expected to see a 5.7 percent increase, with Africa close behind at 5.6 percent. South America is projected to grow by 3.4 percent, while Europe might experience a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the most substantial contraction, with merchandise exports expected to fall by 17.2 percent during the year.
Import growth also varies markedly across regions in the latest WTO outlook. Asia is forecasted to record 9.5 percent growth in merchandise imports, and Africa is expected to increase by 8.9 percent. North American imports are projected to rise by 1.4 percent, whereas Europe may see a modest 0.5 percent increase. Meanwhile, merchandise imports into the Middle East are expected to decline by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala commented that the recent figures demonstrate trade resilience but also emphasize the unequal exposure of regions to economic and geopolitical disruptions.