BRUSSELS, BELGIUM / RankWire.AI / – In 2026, the European Union is projected to see an increase of approximately €53 billion in transport expenses caused by higher road fuel prices. The estimate was published by Transport & Environment on September 23 after analyzing data from the 28 weeks ending September 6. The organization compared fuel expenditures during this period with the same span in the previous year and adjusted figures for inflation. Diesel contributed roughly €40 billion of this additional cost, with the calculation encompassing diesel and petrol expenses associated with road transport.
T&E calculated that increased fuel prices added an average of €270 million daily to EU road transport costs. Out of this, diesel accounted for about €203 million of the daily rise, while petrol contributed approximately €67 million. The surge was attributed to tighter refined-fuel supplies resulting from conflicts in the Middle East and outages at Russian refineries. These supply disruptions widened the price gap between crude oil and refined products, especially diesel. Diesel and gasoil also make up about 43% of petroleum products used in the EU by volume.
The European Commission has separately reported notable volatility in crude oil and refined-product markets, particularly for diesel and jet fuel. Its Oil Coordination Group stated on September 8 that the EU currently faces no immediate threat to its oil supplies, noting that increased refinery output and alternative global sources continue to satisfy demand. Additionally, existing commercial and emergency oil stocks remain adequate. The Commission emphasized that ongoing geopolitical uncertainties continue to contribute to significant price fluctuations across global oil and petroleum markets.
Rising Diesel Costs Impact Drivers and Logistics Firms
According to T&E, the typical EU diesel car owner spent about €142 more during the study period. By September 14, the group had calculated an additional €30 premium on a 50-litre diesel fill-up compared to pre-conflict levels. Long-distance trucks in Germany faced an average weekly increase of around €236 in fuel costs. The analysis notes that Europe has approximately 6.2 million trucks on its roads. Elevated diesel prices have also influenced freight operators and other commercial fuel consumers.
Diesel remains a key component of EU transport and freight activities. T&E highlighted that road transport accounted for 77% of the bloc’s diesel and gasoil use in 2024. According to Eurostat, gas and diesel oil supplied 63.2% of energy used in road transport that year, with motor gasoline providing 26.9%, and renewables and biofuels contributing 6.2%. Electricity’s share was minimal at 0.7%, while diesel and gasoline combined made up 90.1% of the energy consumption in road transport in 2024.
Recent EU Data Continues to Monitor Fuel Price Trends
The European Commission updated its Weekly Oil Bulletin on September 24, presenting the latest petroleum prices for consumers across EU member states. This bulletin tracks weekly prices with and without taxes and maintains a historical record dating back to 2005. The update followed the conclusion of the T&E study period on September 6. The Commission gathers national price data and routinely publishes comparative analyses among member states. Its September 8 supply assessment also identified diesel and jet fuel among the products experiencing substantial price volatility.
The €53 billion figure from T&E remains an estimate from the environmental group rather than an official EU figure. The calculation focuses on additional road fuel expenditure over the 28-week comparison period in 2026. The report further examines the impact on passenger vehicles and commercial transport, noting that diesel accounts for the majority of the projected increase. T&E has urged measures to curb diesel demand and promote vehicle electrification. Meanwhile, official EU data continues to track fuel prices, supply conditions, and petroleum consumption across the Union.